General Election Odds Makes Conservatives Favourites
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Brexit might not be happening on the 31st October but instead we now have a Christmas General Election to look forward to. Whilst Remainers aren't permitted a second referendum to get the result they want, Boris Johnson and his Government now has an election so he can possibly get the make-up of Parliament that will let him railroad through legislation that he wants. That doesn't seem particularly fair, but then there's no guarantee that Boris will get the result he wants.
On paper this election looks like an easy win for The Conservatives. Paddy Power have them as clear favourites (1/8) to get the most seats. This is reflected in the polls which shows The Tories with a 13 point lead over Labour. Labour are themselves 5/1 to get the most seats in the General Election whilst The Brexit Party are 18/1 - surprisingly ahead of The LibDems who are at 20/1. The Green Party and UKIP are offered at 500/1!
Johnson Favourite For Number 10
In terms of who will be in Number 10 after the election you can get 1/3 on Boris Johnson continuing in his PM role. Jeremy Corbyn is at 11/4 whilst Jo Swinson comes in at 25/1. Don't expect to see Nigel Farage taking the keys to Number 10 though as he's 50/1 to be the post-election Prime Minister. That's the same odds as Jeremy Hunt by the way! We suspect he's offered just in case Boris Johnson loses his seat although Uxbridge is 1/5 to be Conservative.
Look through Paddy Power's General Election markets and you can actually bet on a large number of England Constituencies. In Scotland you can only bet on the results for East Dunbartonshire and Moray. There are no markets offered for constituencies in Wales or Northern Ireland. In fact there are no markets or odds offered for any Plaid or DUP activity.
Will Farage Be An MP?
The Brexit Party, unsurprisingly, are covered and they are 8/11 to get 0 seats at the up and coming General Election. If you think they may be successful then you can 10/11. We suspect that there will be no Brexit Party MPs but they will still celebrate their percentage of UK votes. They're 12/5 to get over 5% and under 10% of the total vote and 11/4 for 10% to 15%. There are no markets on whether Nigel Farage will finally become an MP at the eighth time of trying.
The big question is should you bet on The General Election? Given that the odds are heavily in favour of The Conservatives it doesn't seem worthwhile. However, as we've seen in the past, polls and pundits can be wrong. This is also an unusual election in that each constituency may react differently - especially with respect to Brexit. Furthermore the Remain and Leave camps may result in vote splits that could effect the results.
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