Do If/Then Sports Prize Draws Pay Out?

If Then

Do If/Then Sports Prize Draws Pay Out?

As a site we like to be flexible with the various kinds of prize draws and giveaways that exist. That’s why our listings are an eclectic mix of free to enter prize draws, purchase necessary comps, social media giveaways and pay to enter prize draw sites. They all have their place in the comping world and thanks to our various filters you can focus on or hide these options as you choose. A recent addition to our listings have been some X/Twitter prize draws that are usually run by sportsbetting related accounts. We’ve dubbed that “if/then sports comps” and indicate them as such on the listings if you wish to avoid them and here’s why: the giveaway usually revolves a sporting event happening that day and a prize will only be awarded if someone scores, a certain result is achieved or perhaps a horse places in a particular race. If the event doesn’t happen then no prizes are awarded. In other words if the event happens then the prize is awarded. We’re not big fans of these kind of giveaways but we did ask ASA about them and they’ve got no issues provided the caveats and terms are clear. But are they worth a go and does anyone actually win?

A Bit Of Background

We decided to take a quick look at a few of the prize draws and accounts that have been posted by users onto Loquax over the last few weeks. The choice of site and ordering below is purely random. Note also that this blog is purely about the prize draws on these accounts and nothing else. We’re only reporting on the information that we can find. For the blog we wanted to look at the prize draws they offered, the prizes available, the kind of predictions made and whether we could find evidence of winners or follow ups to results. In truth we came at this with some scepticism and it’s quite possible other compers have a similar standpoint. Our pessimistic view of if/then style giveaways is that the event chosen is often so outlandish that no one actually has a chance of getting a prize. Therefore the givaways are merely a vehicle to promote tipsters etc. Note that we may add other accounts to the list below.

The Stats King

The Stats King’s bio suggests that they’re a “Professional Tipster in the game for 15 years”. They have over 7000 followers on X and post football & horse racing tips on Telegram. They seem to run a daily prize draw on offering cash prizes provided their betting predictions come in. Examples of these predictions include a 650/1 shot of Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham have over 0.5 Shots in the Real Madrid v Bayarn Munich UCL game. Another recent prediction was for a 750/1 Bet Builder for the Aston Villa v Chelsea game and a 950/1 Bet Builder for the Forest v Man City match. Now we’re no betting experts but you don’t get odds like that for things that are likely to happen, so this suggests to us that The Stats King is feeling safe when it comes to offering cash prizes of up to £250 at a time. But you never know with sport so has anyone ever won? Unfortunately we couldn’t find any evidence of anyone winning from one of these if/then prize draws nor any follow up from The Stats King on their posts revealing either the result of the bet or if anyone has won.

Mystery Football

Not every if/then style comp is run by a tipster. Mystery Football describe themselves as “the UK’s #1 provider of obscure mystery football shirts”. From them you can purchase a box of football shirts but you don’t which teams will be in the box. For a chance to win a mystery football shirt usually one of a couple of players has to score in a selected match. For example Heung-Min Son or Bukayo Saka in the North London derby or Julian Brandt or Kylian Mbappe in the Dortmund v PSG game. To us these seem more likely to happen than the 600/1+ predictions above so that’s a positive. But do we have any winners? Well there’s good news here too. A quick scroll through X and on 1st May Harry Kane or Vinicius Junior did score in a featured UCL game which resulted in a Forest fan winning the prize. There was also a winner for the North London derby game too and a bit further back in another UCL match featuring Bayarn during mid April. Another account, Mystery Champions, runs similar giveaways to Mystery Football. We don’t think the brands are related but they too have realistic if/then predictions and also have winners.

The Betting Empire

According to their X bio, The Betting Empire are “a team of professionals, providing free and VIP tips”. They have accounts on services like Telegram and Discord plus run weekly free tips and giveaways on X/Twitter. The “ifs” for the chance to win a £250 cash prize seem a lot more realistic than The Stats King. Some of the triggers to pay out a prize sum include “If Summerville scores against QPR”, “If Palmer or Martinelli scores in the Arsenal v Chelsea game” and “If Garnacho scores against Coventry vs Manchester United”. Scrolling through the timeline and it does seem that these kind of prize draws are fairly new and to date no one has won. The Betting Empire also don’t follow up/reply to their promotional tweets with any results. What we did notice was that retweets are also quite low compared to similar giveaways. The number of entries is always worth considering when looking at this kind of giveaway (lower retweets = more chance of winning if the event occurs). However also be wary of smaller brands offering big cash prizes which they may or may not be able to pay out.

The Racing Blogger

Stephen R Power is The Racing Blogger and boasts an incredible 171,000 followers on The guy even has his own documentary over on Youtube and that’s clocked up 53,000 views. What’s useful here is that unlike some other accounts mentioned this one does at least have a face to it. Anyway we selected this one to feature as with all the if/then prize draws we’re seen posted onto Loquax we think the £2500 offered by The Racing Blogger on Sunday 5th May (provided William Buick and Charlie Appleby won on their respective horses at Chester) is the largest. Surprisingly for such a large amount of cash this only attracted under 350 reweets. When it comes to horse racing we’re clueless so have no idea whether the suggestions made by The Racing Blogger for his potential cash giveaways are likely to happen but the selected horses chosen finished 5th and 9th respectively so perhaps not the best options? Obviously this draw failed it’s “if” so no winners, but we couldn’t find any prize draw winners mentioned for other draws. Mind you that may be because his X account is incredibly active and Power does like a reply and retweet or two.

So Should You Enter These Giveaways?

To be fair the above has surprised us a little. It seems that some of the giveaways are balanced in that the events chosen may have a good chance of happening whilst others are so outlandish that it’s pretty unlikely that any prizes will be awarded. It was also nice to see that that Mystery Football announcing winners so at least we know they look to be running things fairly. We remain very sceptical though over any tipping accounts that run these kind of giveaways. If a 650/1 shot comes in I’ll giveaway a cash prize doesn’t sound like great odds to us and when that kind of mechanic is used time and time again the feeling is that the account isn’t actively seeking to giveaway anything any time soon. We’d also suggest be wary of new accounts in the space but that’s the same advice with anything in comping. On the flipside The Racing Blogger is a well established account but is it worth a punt at the giveaways? We’re on the fence with that one and would like to see if anyone has ever won from a such a prize draw on that account.

Our Top Tips

If you’re on X/Twitter and you don’t mind giveaways that involve sports then some of these prize draws may be of interest. After all entry is usually just an RT and a follow. But before you start clicking on Elon’s buttons in the hope of winning cash and footy shirts just stop for a moment and consider the “if” event. Does it seem fair along the lines of those offered by Mystery Football or outlandish as those offered by The Stats King? We’d happily risk a RT for the former but the latter feels like a waste of anyone’s time. We’d also suggest being wary of faceless tipster accounts. Look to see if they have an actual website or way of contact, even if it’s through social media. Of course having a face online isn’t a guarantee of running a fair giveaway and so it comes back to understanding the “if” event and then perhaps looking to see if an account has ever announced any prize draw winners. If there’s never been any or say one or two over a long period of time then it might be best to just stay away.


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